Zelensky said armed forces have become more active on Belarusian territory.

Zelensky said that armed forces have become more active on Belarusian territory.

"We are recording attempts by the occupation contingent to regroup forces, most likely in order to compensate for a shortage of personnel. In this connection, it is becoming more obvious why the activity of armed forces on the territory of Belarus has been increased.

According to intelligence data, roads are being built toward Ukrainian territory in the Belarusian border area, and artillery positions are being set up. We believe Russia will once again try to drag Belarus into its war.

I instructed that, through the appropriate channels, the de facto leadership of Belarus be warned about Ukraine's readiness to defend its land and independence. The nature and consequences of recent actions in Venezuela should deter the leadership of Belarus from making mistakes."

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The construction of roads and artillery positions can indeed be a sign of preparation for combat operations.

In that case, two things need to be watched:

1) the actual deployment of a contingent at locations of stationing;

2) the composition of the deployed forces and assets: the size of the grouping, the range of weapons, and so on.

I have not yet seen any reports about the deployment of forces and assets on the border with Belarus. Here we need to watch whether Konstantin Mashovets and other specialized resources, such as DeepState, write about it (unfortunately, there is no longer "Belaruski Gayun," which also tracked all this).

Volodymyr Zelensky writes about the regrouping of the occupation contingent in order to compensate for a shortage of personnel. It sounds as if he is hinting that the Russian Armed Forces will try to replenish their personnel at the expense of Belarusians. But some additional confirmations are needed.

Yesterday, in an interview with the Financial Times, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, said that the occupiers are bringing in a strategic reserve of 20,000 people to reinforce the 680,000-strong grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, but their goal is to capture Donbas by September.

Nothing was said there about Belarus.

From Zelensky's message, which contains very few details, one can draw only two preliminary possible scenarios:

1) attempts at separate border provocations in order to draw part of the Ukrainian forces into defending the border, while continuing the main attack in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia region;

2) attempts to penetrate border territories, as is happening in Kharkiv and Sumy regions, in order to create so-called "buffer zones" there. But in the border area with Belarus, this will be harder to do because of more stretched logistics.

So we will wait for information about the deployment of troops and the composition of forces and assets.

And whether Trump will call his new friend Lukashenko, or rather, write tweets: "Alexander, stop!!!"