AFU Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: "I don't think Belarus will dare provide its own t..."
AFU Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: "I don't think Belarus will dare provide its own territory for an offensive against Ukraine. A more likely option is a Russian offensive from Bryansk Oblast toward Chernihiv Oblast."
"In light of recent events, I do not think that the leadership of Belarus will dare provide its own territory to the aggressor for use as a springboard for conducting an offensive operation. At the same time, of course, we are taking such a scenario into account as well.
The most likely option, which is confirmed by several pieces of data, is possible offensive actions from Russian territory, from Bryansk Oblast. This is a realistic option, and of course we are preparing for it.
This is not an offensive on Kyiv, but on Chernihiv Oblast with the aim of seizing territory, pushing deeper in order to divert part of our forces from the main important directions, to stretch the front and deprive us of reserves."
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On my own behalf, I would add that Russia has not advanced for more than a year in either Kharkiv or Sumy oblasts. Opening yet another front direction under these conditions would look like a strange decision. Unless it comes after carrying out a new wave of mobilization.
A New Front for the Same Stall
Belarus looks doubtful, while a Bryansk push is treated as more realistic.
The same dead end just got a new route.