A serious failure at the front could be the trigger.” What may await Russia after the State Duma elections

“A serious failure at the front could be the trigger.” What may await Russia after the State Duma elections

Autumn 2026 may become a time for new unpopular decisions by the Russian authorities. Officials, political strategists, deputies, regional government employees, and sources close to the presidential administration who spoke with Verstka are discussing a wide range of scenarios.

According to two political strategists working with the Kremlin, some in the security apparatus favor the introduction of “martial law or elements of it.” According to those two Kremlin-linked political strategists, this option is supported by “some security officials who have long believed it is time to stop being coy” with the population and to “fight with the whole country.”

“A serious failure at the front or in recruiting people into the troops could be the trigger,” one of them suggested.

Exit visas, however, are still unlikely to become reality for now, the sources say. At the same time, according to Verstka’s sources, the list of categories of citizens who will need special permission to leave may be expanded.

At the same time, the authorities appear to have abandoned the idea of making VPNs effectively paid or banning them completely. “It is impossible to block VPNs completely,” a Verstka source from the state-adjacent IT sphere explains. However, the pressure will continue.

“Using a VPN should not be convenient for the average Russian user,” he notes.

New repressive measures may also follow after the elections. Among the ideas being discussed are tougher liability for violations of currency legislation and further tightening of control over Russians with foreign assets.

The economic consequences could also prove painful. Experts allow for a sharp rise in fuel prices if the state changes the fuel damping mechanism, while the budget deficit will push the authorities toward new levies.

Read what else may happen in the country after the elections on Verstka’s website (with VPN):

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