The U.S. warned Poland that Russia is preparing an armed provocation in the coming months

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The U.S. warned Poland that Russia is preparing an armed provocation in the coming months

Washington warned Warsaw that Russia is planning an armed provocation against Poland and that it may be carried out within the next few months. The Telegraph writes this citing its own sources and sources from the Polish outlet Onet (both belong to Axel Springer).

Details. Poland received warnings from the U.S. several times, an Onet source close to the country’s president Karol Nawrocki said. Poland’s ambassador to one of the NATO countries and a source in the Polish Defense Ministry warned that a Russian provocation in one of the Baltic states or in Poland poses a serious danger. A Telegraph source in one of the Baltic countries confirmed that such plans are being considered in Moscow.

▪️According to Onet’s sources in the Polish security services, there could be a UAV attack on critical infrastructure sites such as power plants, or a simulated airstrike to trigger the air defense system.

▪️In the most extreme scenario, there could be a hybrid attack in a border region, one of the outlet’s sources said. The same source also did not rule out an armed invasion involving Russian or Belarusian troops.

▪️At the same time, Russia may present what happened as an accidental crossing of the Polish border due to a GPS malfunction or as a rescue operation to evacuate a helicopter that suffered a malfunction.

▪️Moscow is counting on the fact that in such a case Poland, under pressure from the U.S., will be forced to negotiate rather than respond with force, the outlet’s sources say. A scenario in which Russia withdraws troops from the country as a result of negotiations rather than a military clash would be regarded by Moscow as a victory. In such negotiations, one of Russia’s demands could be an end to support for Ukraine, The Telegraph writes.

▪️According to Onet’s sources, the Russian provocation will not resemble a classic war, and Russia has not yet made a decision to launch it.

▪️NATO, according to The Telegraph, could respond to a Russian provocation with strikes on Kaliningrad.

▪️A representative of the Polish Defense Ministry confirmed to Onet the possibility of a Russian provocation, but noted that Poland has already conducted exercises aimed at warning Moscow of a devastating response from NATO.

Context. Last week Latvian intelligence warned that it sees signs Russia is preparing provocations against the Baltic states and Poland. A week earlier, a Guardian source from a NATO country said he was receiving intelligence that Moscow “is planning something against the Baltic states.” Also last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk publicly voiced concern, saying that “the situation is extremely unstable and various forms of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months.”

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