And Belarus again. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recorded a 13-minute video in which...

And Belarus again. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recorded a 13-minute video in which he said that Belarus's preparation for military action began back in January, and that 5 signs point to this. This does not mean an imminent attack by Belarus in the near future, but events are once again moving in a dangerous direction. Belarus is clearly preparing for escalation, and Ukraine's northern front should become an object of close attention.

I am giving the points in summary:

▪️Military activation in Belarus began in January. Kuleba identifies 5 elements of this activation. Each of these elements by itself is not something new, but taken together they provide a complete picture.

1) Continuous combat training of Belarusian army units, coordinated by Russian instructors and commanders. Belarus is not preparing on its own, but under the close supervision of its curators.

2) In Belarus, they have begun regularly emphasizing the mobilization readiness of the entire country, not just the armed forces, and the involvement of reservists. Lukashenko called up reserve officers. They are not doing this for the first time, there is nothing extraordinary about it, but it is one element of the overall picture.

3) Command-and-military maneuvers were held in March. Lukashenko drove around Belarusian forests, shouted at generals, said that everyone needed to lose weight and be in good physical shape, and hyped up the image of a stern commander-in-chief. This is not the first time he has done this, but command-and-military maneuvers are no longer just a check of combat capability; they are practice in interaction at the level of headquarters and units.

4) Strengthening Belarus with air defense systems. Belarus is proceeding from the assumption that things will start flying into its airspace. There is information that Russia is tossing them air defense systems.

5) Increasingly visible activation of interaction between the Russian Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Belarus - no longer at the unit level, but at the level of coordinating plans.

▪️At a recent meeting with the senior command staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Lukashenko said that the era of peace for Belarus was over, and said literally: "We are preparing for war."

▪️Naturally, he talks about this as a defensive war, as if someone is supposedly planning to attack us. Naturally, no one is planning to attack him. Life teaches that when a dictator starts talking about war in plain language, his statements should not be treated dismissively.

▪️For this reason, presumably, Vladimir Zelensky's statement about building roads and preparing artillery positions came out.

▪️The set of factors we are observing indicates a qualitatively new level of preparation by the Armed Forces of Belarus for certain actions under the control, supervision, and accompaniment of the Russian Federation.

▪️Does this mean that Belarus is about to go on the offensive? Right now it does not. Lukashenko understands that whatever the air defense system in Belarus may be, if they attack Ukraine, it will respond: there will be many missiles, drones, destruction, and losses, and that is not what he wants. But, obviously, Putin is dragging him into this story.

▪️What is happening is clear preparation for military escalation. This means that the northern front once again requires Ukraine's attention.

▪️Russia is looking for a way to make a "final push" in order to finish squeezing Ukraine and force it to capitulate. It would be desirable for the United States and China to explain to Lukashenko that he does not need this, and Zelensky's statement is part of these diplomatic maneuvers.

▪️From the point of view of negotiations, this is yet another piece of proof that Russia is not intent on ending the war; it is intent on "finishing off" Ukraine.

▪️Overall, movement is taking place in a very dangerous direction. It cannot be ruled out that Belarus's military activity concerns not only Ukraine, but is also part of pressure on the Baltic states and, to a lesser extent, Poland.

▪️Whether escalation happens or not depends on the set of military-diplomatic measures that Ukraine and its partners undertake. But Belarus is clearly preparing.