DeepState updated the occupation dynamics.

DeepState updated the occupation dynamics.

In July, the Russian Armed Forces captured 36 km² of Ukrainian territory.

The front has been standing still for the third month in a row.

The first chart compares the pace of Russian Armed Forces advances in 2025-26 by month.

DeepState add that in July the pace of Russian Armed Forces advances was still higher than in May-June, but in July it became possible to mark the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from previous months, so that created a slight distortion.

At the same time, for operational security reasons, the map still does not show the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advances on two sectors totaling 132 km². So in reality, if you add everything up, the front has not moved AT ALL over the last three months.

DeepState write that at the current pace the Russian Armed Forces will not capture Donetsk Oblast either in 2026 or in 2027. But much will depend on mobilization in Russia this autumn: whether it happens, and if so, on what scale.

At the same time, DeepState note that advances like the Russians had near Kurakhove or Selydove in 2025 will not happen anymore, because under current conditions two or three drone crews are sent after each individual occupier.