An updated text has appeared for the late Lindsey Graham’s sanctions bill against Russia...

An updated text has appeared for the late Lindsey Graham’s bill on sanctions against Russia, which was revised by senators from both parties; it was analyzed by Reuters.

For some reason, people are writing that the new amendments weakened the bill. I honestly do not see where exactly they weakened it. On the contrary, there are a number of additional provisions there that strengthen it.

Point by point, with explanations right away.

Weakenings:

▪️100% secondary tariffs on Russia’s trading partners instead of 500%.

That makes no difference at all whether it is 100%, 500%, or 100500%. One-hundred-percent tariffs completely kill trade with any trading partner. 500% looks nice, but the effect of 100% and 500% is the same.

▪️Exemptions for countries that import less than 15% of their total gas consumption from Russia and are seeking to reduce imports.

This would make it possible to exempt, for example, Japan, France, Hungary, and Belgium from the tariffs. Well, okay. We were still short of additional tariffs on Western countries.

Now for the strengthenings:

▪️Sanctions on vessels of Russia’s shadow fleet that do not depend on Western maritime services.

It is not entirely clear what is meant here. Possibly this refers to tankers serviced in European ports or carrying European insurance. (Yes, about one-third of Russian oil is still legally exported from Greece, Cyprus, Malta, and other countries, though under the oil price cap).

▪️Sanctions on Russian financial institutions, including the Central Bank.

▪️Sanctions on Russia’s largest energy projects, such as "Yamal LNG" and "Arctic LNG 1, 2, and 3".

Bottom line: the weakenings play no role at all, while the strengthenings are massive. Sanctions against the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are interesting if only from the standpoint of seeing what comes of it. Sanctions against "Yamal LNG" and "Arctic LNG" also make sense, especially given the latest information from Financial Times about how heavily Europeans have been buying from them lately.

❓So far it is unknown whether the bill will add secondary tariffs for trade with Iran and Hezbollah.

Trump said today that such an option is possible. I am fully in favor, obviously. But Democrats are already saying that this would require rewriting the bill again, and that will take time, since Iran’s trading partners have their own specifics and all that. In short, if they add it, it will not be superfluous. But we’ll see.