Two pieces of news, one good and one controversial, both from Reuters, both about oil.

Two pieces of news, one good and one controversial, both from Reuters, both about oil.

The good one:

▪️As a result of Ukrainian strikes, Russia in April cut oil production by 300,000-400,000 bpd compared with the first months of the year and by 500,000-600,000 bpd compared with the end of 2025.

▪️This is the biggest monthly drop in production since the Covid pandemic. Ukrainian strikes are making it harder to store and transport oil, especially ahead of spring maintenance work, so a production cut is unavoidable, a source said.

▪️Russia classified its official oil production data after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while unofficial figures vary across different sources: the IEA estimated Russia's March production at 8.96 million bpd, while OPEC gave 9.167 million bpd.

▪️If we subtract April's decline from those figures, we get April production of 8.6-8.9 million bpd.

▪️At the end of 2025, Goldman Sachs forecast a decline in Russian production from 9.3 to 8.4 million bpd in 2026. In principle, if the current intensity of Ukrainian strikes continues, these figures look achievable. True, some production may be restored; a monthly drop does not mean an annual one, Reuters concludes.

Thanks to Yevgeny Istrebin for the tip.

And now I will give the controversial one.