Talks have hit a dead end, Putin is preparing to escalate the war up to the possible use...

Talks have hit a dead end, Putin is preparing to escalate the war up to the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, - Bloomberg citing sources close to the Kremlin.

This has spread across public channels. Looks like the standard package of threats from the Kremlin.

I broke down each point separately. If you already don't react to threats from the Kremlin and are just worried about nukes, skip everything and go straight to point 14.

1. Russia is preparing to escalate attacks after deciding that negotiations have reached a dead end.

The negotiations had already been at a dead end for all of these past four and a half years, because Russia has never conducted them in good faith and has spent the entire time simulating a process.

2. Russia is preparing to intensify ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, including the city center, as well as on infrastructure facilities in other cities.

We know that Russia is preparing to intensify strikes, especially ahead of winter. But even before that, Russia had intensified strikes on Kyiv starting in May. Russia launches as many strikes as it has missiles, and it cannot launch more than it has.

3. All negotiation frameworks have effectively collapsed, and the warring sides have returned to the starting point.

All negotiation frameworks were stillborn and came out of Trump's sick fantasy of seating Putin at the negotiating table with economic handouts while at the same time pushing Ukraine toward surrendering Donbas. Which, by the way, Trump again hinted at in his congratulatory letter for Ukraine's Independence Day.

4. Putin will not end the war under economic pressure from sanctions.

He won't. That doesn't mean sanctions shouldn't be used to apply pressure.

5. Putin will not end the war because of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and logistics infrastructure.

He won't. That doesn't mean refineries and logistics infrastructure shouldn't be hit.

6. Moscow increasingly views Ukrainian strikes as strikes by NATO countries, because alliance members provide Kyiv with weapons and intelligence.

For all 4.5 years NATO has been supplying Ukraine with weapons and providing intelligence. But now suddenly Moscow will view this as strikes by NATO.

7. The current phase of combat is not yet the peak of escalation.

This is not yet the peak of escalation, yes. The sides are increasing missile and drone strikes. Russia continues to build up its grouping in Ukraine, albeit slowly. A hypothetical mobilization could speed up this process.

8. In the absence of diplomacy, Moscow sees no alternative to further escalation in order to achieve its military goals.

Diplomacy has been absent for 4.5 years already. This entire time Russia has been trying to force Ukraine's capitulation. There has not been a single moment when Russia was ready to consider diplomacy, and all its "proposals for diplomacy" were proposals for Ukraine's capitulation, from Istanbul to Anchorage.

9. The Kremlin believes it has already made concessions during this war, and that they weakened Russia's position.

You mean Russia's retreat from near Kyiv was a concession or what? :)

10. The Kremlin viewed Anchorage as another compromise that failed.

Anchorage was not a compromise. Anchorage was de facto a proposal for Ukraine's capitulation.

11. More and more officials in the Kremlin are coming to the conclusion that Putin may eventually use tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort.

Why exactly? Why didn't the Kremlin use it условно a year ago, but will use it now? What has changed since then?

12. Talk of nuclear weapons from hardliners in Moscow has become more frequent lately.

The use of nuclear weapons depends not on talk inside the Kremlin, but on deterrent factors, including the reaction of the US and China. Even China opposes the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

13. This extreme option is considered possible because for Putin, defeat in the war is worse than its continuation.

So the Kremlin thinks that if they don't use nuclear weapons, they will lose the war?

14. For now, there are no signs that Russia is preparing to carry out a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

That could have been the opening line.

Bloomberg.com

Putin Moves to Escalate War in Ukraine as Talks at Dead End

Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end, according to three people close to the Kremlin.