A clarification about Lindsey Graham’s bill.

To Be Or:

About the late Lindsey Graham’s bill, which has once again been postponed until better times (until the congressional elections). I just want to clarify: it is not being passed because of the Democrats, not because of rising gasoline prices, not because of the upcoming elections. It is not being passed because...

🎨🎨🎨 A clarification about Lindsey Graham’s bill.

I spoke with an American expert who, among other things, is involved in advocating for this bill in Congress.

Right now the snag is not so much Speaker Johnson as the House Rules Committee, where the bill is currently stuck.

The committee has 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats. And at least five Republicans there are harshly opposed to Ukraine (Brian Jack, Ralph Norman, Chip Roy, Michelle Fischbach, Erin Houchin — this is not an insider leak, it is public information).

In short, there is no majority in the committee, and under standard procedure Speaker Johnson cannot put the bill up for a vote until he receives approval from the committee (or, more precisely, from 7 committees that must give their verdict on the bill).

There is also an expedited procedure under which Speaker Johnson can put the bill forward without committee approval. But in that case he needs not a simple majority, but a qualified majority, or “supermajority” (2/3 of the House votes).

Right now Michael McCaul (Republican) and Steny Hoyer (Democrat), who are pushing the bill in the House, are counting votes in their parties to see whether they will have 2/3 to put the bill forward under the expedited procedure.

If they count 2/3, they will be able to put the bill forward under the expedited procedure during the House working session that begins on September 14.

If there is no 2/3, the bill will be postponed until the elections in November, and then we’ll see.