Update on Belarus. ISW and InformNapalm helped shed light.

Update on Belarus. ISW and InformNapalm helped shed light.

But first, a disclaimer: an offensive from Belarus remains extremely unlikely. ISW does not observe or record any deployment of Belarusian troops on the border capable of a ground offensive. Ukrainian State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andriy Demchenko confirmed on May 24 that Belarusian forces are NOT moving and are NOT concentrating personnel, weapons, or military equipment on the border. Russia also lacks the reserves necessary to support such an invasion, according to ISW.

Essentially, the same assessments as Mashovets.

But. What could happen?

Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich said yesterday at a CSTO committee meeting in Moscow that Ukrainian UAVs allegedly violate Belarusian airspace, and in a number of cases do so intentionally in order to strike elements of Belarus's border infrastructure under the guise of accidental incursions.

Volfovich said that the Belarusian armed forces allegedly recorded 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the border with Belarus last week.

And this statement could have been ignored, but the point is that on December 22, 2025, there was a recorded launch from Belarusian territory of a guided "Shahed" that struck a freight train near Korosten, Zhytomyr region, 50 km from the border with Ukraine, according to ISW.

That means there have already been attempts to attack western Ukraine with "Shaheds" from Belarusian territory (presumably by Russian operators).

ISW believes that Volfovich's statement may indicate Russian attempts to begin regularly launching "Shaheds" from Belarusian territory. Volfovich is preemptively justifying this by claiming that Ukraine was the first to try to attack Belarusian infrastructure, which is, of course, utter bullshit.

Launching "Shaheds" from Belarusian territory will make it easier for Russia to strike Ukrainian highways and railways in the western regions: the distance and flight time will be shorter, and Ukrainian air defense crews and mobile fire groups will have less time to react.

Well, Lukashenko has been warned, repeatedly, so what else is there to say.

There is now no doubt that if things start regularly flying from Belarus at Ukraine, then everything Ukraine has will fly back in the other direction: at the Mozyr oil refinery, at potash fertilizer facilities, everything there is within range, there is no particular air defense cover there, and the consequences for Lukashenko will be irreparable.