Analyst Named the Goals of Russian Pressure on Armenia

An analyst named the goals of Russian pressure on Armenia

Today, Vladimir Putin congratulated Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on his birthday, and did so twice: first came reports that the Kremlin had sent a congratulatory telegram, and after that came information about a phone call between Putin and Pashinyan.

But on the other hand, we are seeing a noticeable cooling in relations between Russia and Armenia, and threats from the Kremlin in the event that Armenia, after the upcoming elections this weekend, chooses to move toward the EU.

Earlier, the Russian authorities banned imports from Armenia to Russia of fish, cucumbers, tomatoes, herbs, and strawberries; they also banned the supply and circulation of Jermuk mineral water, as well as the import of one brand of Armenian cognac and two brands of wine.

What is Russia trying to achieve with this pressure and these threats? TV Rain spoke about this with Areg Kochinyan, head of the analytical center Armenian Council. We are publishing the main quotes.

What does Russia want to achieve?

On June 7, Armenia will hold its next parliamentary elections. Russia has completely obvious favorites in these elections. There are three pro-Russian political parties, and sometimes they are even called outright Russian parties, that Russia wants to see in Armenia’s parliament.

And the purpose of these trade restrictions is to frighten and blackmail the population. And thereby reduce Pashinyan’s vote as much as possible and increase its own votes as much as possible. I believe the Kremlin has two such scenarios. A maximum plan and a minimum plan.

The maximum plan is for the Russian parties to win the parliamentary elections, and for Russia’s candidate, billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, to become prime minister, so that it can then simply run this country manually. And the minimum plan is to take at least one third of the seats in Armenia’s parliament.

Why is this necessary? According to the law, it is possible to start a referendum on adopting a new constitution in Armenia only if two thirds of parliament vote for it.

And the adoption of a new constitution in Armenia is needed for two reasons. The first is reforms in our country, which are very, very necessary as part of democratic processes. And the second is the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

Initially, at the very beginning of the election campaign, Pashinyan’s numbers were much lower [than the current 65%, editor’s note]. They were closer to 20-something to 30-something percent. But during the election campaign, Pashinyan’s team managed to strengthen its positions, and everything, generally speaking, started going in a direction that was not the best for Russian interests. And now we see that Russia has already fully entered this game.

What effect are these threats having?

Indeed, Armenia has a fairly large dependence on Russia economically. I would put even more emphasis on energy.

But alongside that, I have the impression that all these processes we are seeing now, these [banned from import] flowers, cognac, wine, fruit, vegetables, all these bans, are generally a temporary phenomenon. And immediately after the elections, we will see some easing of this tension.

Because these are the main instruments Russia still has now in its relations with Armenia. If it keeps pressing on the same pressure points, the Armenian side simply will have no other choice but to find alternatives.

For example, around 6-7 years ago, Russia ranked first in supplying arms to Armenia. More than 90% of all foreign arms supplies Armenia received came from Russia. Now that figure is less than 7%. Because Russia kept using this trump card against Armenia for a long time, Armenia had no other option but to seek diversification.

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