Mali.

Mali.

As you know, in 2021–23 a series of coups swept across the Sahel region with the support of the Wagner PMC — Mali (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), Niger (2023).

After the Wagner PMC was exposed in Ukraine and reorganized into the “Africa Corps,” Russia’s position in the region weakened somewhat.

And while the military juntas in Burkina Faso and Niger are currently not under any real threat, in Mali — where the ethno-national structure is more complex and the war has been going on since 2012 — the government of Assimi Goïta, supported by Russia, is gradually losing ground.

In effect, Mali is divided into four parts. You can see what this looks like in practice on map 1 (the map BEFORE yesterday’s events began):

🟥 - Assimi Goïta’s government forces;

🟩 - the Azawad Liberation Front (its core is made up of Tuaregs who advocate secession from Mali and an independent state of Azawad; at one point, Ukrainians trained them to use drones, which helped destroy a Wagner PMC column near Tinzaouaten in the summer of 2024);

⬜️ - Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (a jihadist group, effectively the local branch of al-Qaeda);

⬛️ - Wilayat Sahel (effectively the local branch of ISIS).

ISIS, as usual, is against everyone, but there have been no reports of its participation in the fighting.

But the ALF and Jama’at are acting as situational allies and yesterday launched an offensive against government forces in six cities: Kidal, Gao, Sévaré, Mopti, Kati, and the capital Bamako (marked on the map with blue arrows).

The results, as often happens in such cases, are not entirely clear — there are almost no OSINT researchers there who could independently confirm control (and there is no front line as such).

But among what can be considered confirmed is Tuareg control of the city of Kidal; there are four geolocated videos from there:

2 - Tuaregs in the Kidal governor’s palace, while the governor himself fled to the camp of the local UN mission;

3 - the government forces’ garrison in Kidal surrenders to the rebels;

4 - the Russian “Africa Corps” retreats from its military base together with fighters from the local garrison; no Africa Corps insignia are visible on the convoy, but;

5 - the same convoy is seen entering the camp of the local UN mission; France24 journalist Wassim Nasr claims that this is the “Africa Corps,” which evacuated local fighters; rebels wave the flags of free Azawad after them.

The French agency RFI confirms Tuareg control over Kidal and also reports that, under an agreement, Russian military personnel from the “Africa Corps” were allowed to leave the city.

“The musicians have capitulated. Pypa, the results,” confirms the Z-channel Alex Parker Returns (screenshot 6).

As for the other cities: Gao, Sévaré, and Mopti are under divided control between the government and the rebels.

The capital Bamako and its suburban outpost Kati are under government control; five hours ago, RFI reported that fighting is taking place in these areas.

Other developments:

▪️Russia lost a military helicopter together with its crew and a mobile fire group on board (apparently a Ka-52, but this needs to be clarified). The preliminary cause was a hit by an air-defense system (screenshot 7).

▪️Mali’s defense minister, Sadio Camara, was killed together with one of his wives (there were several wives, apparently), three relatives, and 17 other people. According to RFI, they were blown up by a suicide bomber who drove up in a truck.

▪️In the Z-channels, as always: some are doing crisis management and saying “there is no panic”; others are blaming the local troops, who screwed everything up, just as they once blamed everything on Assad’s militants; and still others are taking a more moderate position, saying that the rebels prepared well and that not all problems should be pinned on the locals (screenshot 8).