Russia captured 14 km² in May, according to DeepState data.

14 km² was captured by Russia in May, according to DeepState.

This is the lowest result since October 2023, when the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive ended and the Russian assault on Avdiivka began.

In chart 1, I compared the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in 2025-2026 by month to show the contrast.

While in January-April 2026 the advance of the Russian Armed Forces on average slowed only slightly, in May there was a collapse: in 2025, May became a breakthrough month for the Russian Armed Forces (again, at the tactical level), while in 2026 it was close to zero.

Moreover, DeepState reports that as of today there is additional advance by the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front, which they are not yet marking on the map, so as not to cause harm, and taking it into account the Ukrainian Armed Forces would actually have ended May in the black. But it will appear in June.

At the same time, the number of assault actions increased in May, but this did not produce results for the occupiers.

DeepState links this to the fact that the Russian army continues to degrade at the tactical level:

"We are constantly sent videos where [the occupiers] at best conduct assault actions in pairs, and very often one [occupier] assaults solo. But before he gets there, everything will hit him".

The trend of infiltrations remains, but the response of Ukraine's Defense Forces to enemy penetration has grown substantially: it is becoming ever harder for the enemy to stage a flag-planting stunt or build up forces.

The biggest problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains the situation in Kostiantynivka; its prospects are not the best.