Hi, this is Verstka’s politics desk. Today, June 7, parliamentary elections are taking place in Armenia...

Hi, this is Verstka’s politics desk. Today, June 7, parliamentary elections are taking place in Armenia. In Russia, attention to them is focused almost more than on its own State Duma elections.

First, because there is intrigue in them (although current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his party are polling ahead of their rivals), and second, because Moscow, the Kremlin, and Putin personally are threatening Armenia with serious problems.

We decided to write this text because we were getting a lot of questions from friends and colleagues: what happens next? What will happen to migrants on both sides? And what if prices in Yerevan shoot through the roof? What if Moscow has already gone so far off the rails that there will be a war?

The worst-case scenario, a military invasion, is hardly possible simply because Russia cannot sustain a second front. But what economic pressure will look like is still an open question.

The experts and sources we spoke to both in Armenia itself and in Moscow believe that the tensions will probably gradually die down for one simple reason: the alliance benefits not only Yerevan (the economy of small Armenia is seriously tied to Russia), but Moscow itself as well.

Let us not forget that under Putin, Russia is losing one ally after another, and Armenia is, in essence, the last remaining partner in the South Caucasus. And, as one of our interlocutors said: “Armenia is not Ukraine, the West won’t go to bat for it.”

There is some truth in those words. And so there should be no expectation of sudden moves from any government. And one more thing: the Kremlin’s ability to exert influence is not unlimited. They tried in Moldova, and it did not work. They tried in Hungary, and it did not work. Afterward they have to say with a guilty look that “it was all intended that way.”

It has to be said that watching real electoral processes is quite fascinating. We, to be honest, are writing this and envying it.

Read about what politics can look like (and in defiance of the Kremlin, at that!), we hope you will find it interesting:

Link not working? Read here.

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“So that it won’t be easy for Pashinyan and so that he doesn’t get carried away”: why the Kremlin is pressuring Armenia

Russia has fewer and fewer opportunities left to influence the situation in neighboring countries