Elections in Armenia are another Kremlin failure

Elections in Armenia are another Kremlin failure

The Kremlin tried to turn the parliamentary elections in Armenia into a vote against Nikol Pashinyan and his course of distancing the country from Russia. But the outcome was unsuccessful for Moscow: Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party received 49.81% and remained the country’s main political force, which will form the government on its own.

Four forces are entering parliament:

⏺Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract — 49.81%

⏺Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia — 23.29%

⏺Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance — 9.94%

⏺Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia — 4%

Moscow was betting specifically on the pro-Russian flank: Karapetyan, Kocharyan, and Tsarukyan. The Kremlin applied pressure both publicly and behind the scenes:

➡️ With gas and energy resources

Russia threatened to revise or terminate agreements on preferential supplies of gas, oil, and diamonds if Armenia continued its course toward the EU.

➡️ With trade restrictions

Before the elections, Rosselkhoznadzor restricted the import of a number of Armenian goods:

• tomatoes;

• cucumbers;

• peppers;

• greens;

• strawberries;

• according to media reports, there was also pressure on brandy and other products.

A classic Russian instrument: “sanitary” complaints at the moment of political conflict.

➡️ With economic collapse

The Russian narrative was that if Armenia chose the EU, it would lose the Russian market, cheap gas, migrant workers’ jobs, investment, and security.

➡️ With the “Ukrainian scenario”

The harshest line was hints that a turn toward the West could end for Armenia the same way it did for Ukraine: with conflict, destabilization, and war. The Kremlin formally softened such statements, but pro-Kremlin talking heads actively pushed exactly this fear.

➡️ With diplomatic cooling

Russia recalled its ambassador for consultations and demonstratively stepped up its public dissatisfaction with Yerevan.

But the effect was the opposite. Russian pressure only strengthened the sense that the elections were a matter of sovereignty. Pro-Russian forces made it into parliament, but failed to turn the campaign around, while Pashinyan retained the lead and recorded a video to a legendary Queen song.

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