Just to Grasp the Strategic Shitshow We Have Found Ourselves in After...

Just to grasp the strategic shitshow we have found ourselves in after October 1, 2026, made possible by the U.S. removing itself (by Trump’s hand) from the global deterrence system.

It used to be assumed that nuclear war could not be started because there could be no winners in it.

The absence of winners was ensured by the strategic parity between the U.S. and the USSR/Russia.

Some 1,700 deployed warheads on each side and more than 5,000 total in the arsenals of the two largest nuclear states.

Russia cannot win a nuclear war against the United States.

But what if it is a nuclear war not against the United States, but against Europe?

Britain and France have 400 deployed warheads between them (Russia has 4.5 times more) and 595 total in their arsenal (Russia has 9 times more).

And now three questions you can answer for yourselves.

1. Does Putin believe that, with such an advantage in nuclear warheads, he is capable of winning a nuclear war with Europe?

2. How will Europe respond if Putin invades some hypothetical Narva and threatens to use nuclear weapons “in response to European aggression”?

3. Will the United States respond with nuclear weapons if Russia carries out a tactical nuclear strike on some military target in Europe?

In other words, will Trump step in “with all available means” for the sake of “some Narva” that he could not even find on a map?

Do you understand what kind of shit we have found ourselves in?

And yes, this strategic shitshow was IMPOSSIBLE under Biden, because old Joe gave a commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory, whether Narva, Suwalki, Svalbard, or Gotland.

Biden made it clear that he WOULD STEP IN, and therefore it did not occur to anyone to threaten South Central while drinking juice in their own neighborhood.

You may say that Putin had threatened with nuclear weapons before. Yes, he had threatened, but he had not created a precedent for their use.

And here, for the first time in an official letter to NATO countries (not in Medvedev’s posts), he specifically laid out a precedent: any actions regarding Kaliningrad.

It does not matter that Putin would invade first in this scenario; he frames the use of nuclear weapons as RETALIATORY. Exactly the same way he frames his war against Ukraine as a RESPONSE to the alleged genocide of the Russian population in Donbas.

A year ago I said that Putin is not merely preparing for a nuclear war with the West. He is also preparing to WIN it.

I cannot know where and when this will happen, but right now everything is moving toward Putin’s invasion of Europe and the possible use of nuclear weapons in the event of a European conventional response. Thanks to the U.S. taking itself out of the game.