Recruitment of contract soldiers for the war has collapsed in Russia

Recruitment of contract soldiers for the war has collapsed in Russia

In 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense planned to attract 409,000 contract soldiers. Depending on the period, the monthly target is 33,500-34,600 new soldiers. However, instead of the expected 1,100-1,150 contracts per day, over the first 3 months of 2026 the average daily number of people who signed a contract was just over 940. At the same time, it should be remembered that the number of people who signed a contract is not the same as the number who arrived at a unit.

Roughly speaking, if the trend continues, Russia may fall short by 16%, or more than 65,000 people. For comparison: in March alone, the Russian Federation lost 31,960 servicemen killed, BVP, wounded, and taken prisoner.

According to the plans of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Central and Volga federal districts are supposed to become the leaders in selection. The most people will be scraped up from Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Moscow and Moscow Region, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Krai, as well as Rostov and Samara regions.

The smallest target has been set for the North Caucasus Federal District. As for the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the Russian authorities harbor no illusions about the success of voluntary recruitment of Ukrainian citizens for a war against their own country. For the occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, the target is 500 people per region. From Crimea and the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia intends to recruit 3,000 people from each region.

Half of all Russian regions are supposed to provide 900-1,200 contract soldiers for every 100,000 men aged 18-65. It gets interesting if you look at the highest and lowest figures. Thus, per 100,000 men aged 18-65, they plan to recruit the fewest from the regions where the war is already taking place: Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions, as well as from Moscow, Dagestan, and Ingushetia. At the same time, the largest number of men will be taken from the poorest regions of the Russian Federation: Chukotka, Sakhalin, the Jewish Autonomous Region, and Magadan. Just for comparison: Moscow is expected to recruit 1 out of every 200 men aged 18-65, while in Chukotka it is 1 out of 50.

The leader in meeting the target is the Ural Federal District, primarily thanks to Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug: there they have already managed to fulfill more than 37% of the annual target. The Far Eastern Federal District also has high figures, namely Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Primorsky Krai, and the Jewish Autonomous Region.

The subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District are totally failing recruitment: North Ossetia and Dagestan have not fulfilled even 8% of the annual target. The entire district is effectively being “dragged along” by Chechnya, where Kadyrov organized the recruitment of residents of other regions to meet Chechnya’s indicators. Among the regions where less than 14% of the annual target has been met are Kemerovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, Vladimir, Oryol, Tambov, Tula, and Lipetsk regions.

About 24% of all contract soldiers are “special contingent”: convicted prisoners, people under investigation, defendants, as well as citizens with enforcement proceedings against them. Notably, among the special contingent, debtors are the largest category: almost 40%. In effect, the Russian Ministry of Defense is buying itself slaves, using the vulnerable position of various losers and poor bastards.

In addition, Russia’s plans include recruiting at least 18,500 foreign citizens.

Against the backdrop of a decline in the number of people willing to fight even for money, the Kremlin is resorting to increasingly aggressive and dubious recruitment practices. In addition to the cunning scheme called a “contract with the unmanned systems forces,” when people with an IQ of 75 are assured that they will be UAV pilots but in reality are sent into assaults, the Kremlin is forcing enterprises and universities to recruit soldiers. They have begun literally handing down quotas to factories and educational institutions, demanding that they supply people to the troops.

It seems Russians are beginning to realize that getting a teacher’s salary somewhere in Belgium in exchange for ending up in a gallery of final frames from Ukrainian Armed Forces drones is not the best idea, and that it is better not to end up in this war.

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